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Global air bulk cargo demand rises as year-end trade proves resilient

 The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released new data for November 2025 showing continued resilience in global air cargo markets, despite ongoing economic and trade uncertainties.

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), increased by 5.5% year-on-year, with international operations rising by 6.9%. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), grew by 4.7% compared with November 2024, including a 6.5% increase for international services.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said: “Air cargo demand grew 5.5% year-on-year in November 2025, boosted by shippers prioritising timely delivery in the lead-up to the year-end holiday season.

“Strong emerging market demand and selective Middle Eastern growth more than made up for softness in the Americas amid ongoing adjustment to the new US tariff regime. Globally, the fourth quarter for air cargo was resilient as strategic re-routing of trade shaped performance across key markets. The strong end for 2025 bodes well for the air cargo industry as it enters the new year.”

IATA noted several key factors influencing the operating environment. Global goods trade expanded by 3.2% year-on-year in October, while jet fuel prices rose 5.9% in November, despite lower crude prices.

The increase was driven by refinery disruptions, EU restrictions on Russian-derived products and limited spare refining capacity, pushing crack spreads to nearly double last year’s levels.

Manufacturing sentiment also improved, with the global Purchasing Managers’ Index rising for a fourth consecutive month to 51.17. However, new export orders remained below the expansion threshold at 49.87, reflecting continued caution among exporters amid tariff uncertainty.

Overall, the data points to a robust close to 2025 for air cargo, positioning the sector for a cautiously optimistic start to 2026.